Slot machine volatility, often simply called “volatility” or “variance” in slots, refers to the risk profile or variance of payouts in a slot machine game. In essence, it indicates how often and in what amounts a slot pays out jackpots. High volatility slots may pay out less often, but the wins tend to be bigger. Low volatility slots pay out more often, but in smaller amounts. Understanding volatility is key to selecting enjoyable slot games with payouts that fit your bankroll and tastes as a player.
This article will explain slot volatility concepts in depth while avoiding complex statistical terminology. You’ll learn easy methods to gauge volatility in new slots you try, along with examples comparing hypothetical low, medium, and high variance game profiles. Equipped with this knowledge, the risk and reward potentials of any slot machine will be clear at a glance.
Defining Key Volatility Metrics for Slots
Several key mathematical metrics drive volatility in slots at Casino Kansino. Learning what these measures mean is essential to understanding how game volatility shapes overall slot experiences.
| Metric | Definition | Effect on Volatility |
| Hit Frequency | Percentage of spins that result in any payout | Higher hit frequency = Lower volatility |
| RTP % | Theoretical long-run return to player percentage | Higher RTP = Lower volatility |
| Variance | Measure of how far individual payouts deviate from the average payout | Higher variance = Higher volatility |
| Standard Deviation | Square root of variance; indicates the typical deviation of payouts from the average | Higher standard deviation = Higher volatility |
Hit Frequency Shows How Often Slots Pay
Hit frequency refers to the percentage of spins that pay out some sort of win. It doesn’t matter whether wins are tiny or massive jackpots—all that matters for hit frequency is whether each spin pays above or below one credit wage.
High hit frequency examples:
- 90% of spins pay a win between 1X to 500X bets
- 45% of spins pay a small win between 1X to 5X bets
Low hit frequency examples:
- 5% of spins pay a big win between 50X to 1000X bets
- 1% of spins pay a jackpot above 1000X bets
As displayed above, higher hit frequencies drive lower volatility slots that regularly pay small to medium wins. Lower hit frequencies create higher volatility slots with sparse wins that tend to be large when they hit.
Return to Player (RTP) Drives Long-Run Slot Profitability
The return to player (RTP) percentage is a measure of the statistical house edge and thus long-run profitability of slots and other casino games. Expressed as a percentage, RTP shows the average percentage of wagers a slot machine will pay back as winnings over 10,000s if not 100,000s of spins.
Some key traits related to slot machine RTP include:
- RTPs typically range from 90% at the low end to 99% for more generous slots
- Higher RTP equals lower house edge and increased volatility through larger average payouts
- Lower RTP means lower volatility and reduced player returns over time
For volatility and bankroll purposes, memorizing exact RTP figures is less important than having a general sense of whether a slot’s RTP is very high (98-99%), high (96-97%), or low (90-95%) relative to available games. As the examples illustrate, even a few RTP percentage points make major differences in game math and volatility over long play periods.
Variance Quantifies Dispersion of Slot Payouts
Variance measures how dispersed slot machine payouts are from the statistical mean or average. Low variance means payouts remain relatively close to the average. There is less volatility and risk because results are more predictable. High variance means some payouts will deviate widely—both above and below—the statistical mean. This creates unpredictable, volatile swings in either direction.
While the exact variance figure is useful for quantifying volatility, most players don’t need to calculate or memorize it. Just understand that higher mathematical variance equals a more volatile slot with swung payout distributions. Standard deviation has an easier interpretation for volatility, as explained next.
Standard Deviation Simplifies Volatility Calculations
Standard deviation is essentially the square root of variance. Expressed in credits or currency, it calculates an average distance that payout results spread from the statistical mean.
Here is an example standard deviation comparison:
- Low volatility slot: Payouts average 50X bets with a standard deviation of 10X bets
- High volatility slot: Payouts average 50X bets with a standard deviation of 100X bets
In both cases, the average payout is identical at 50X wagers. However, the high volatility slot has a standard deviation of 100X bets compared to just 10X bets. So its actual payouts swing between a wider and more unpredictable range like 0X to 250X bets. Meanwhile, the low volatility slot machine pays between 40X and 60X bets with almost pinpoint accuracy.
Now that you understand key volatility metrics, let’s examine total slot profiles for theoretical low, medium, and high variance games.
Comparing Hypothetical Slot Volatility Profiles
Since variance deals with probability and statistics, it may still seem nebulous without numerical examples. So here are three entirely hypothetical slot pay tables with volatility levels ranging from low too high. These showcase how variance metrics manifest in differently volatile slots you may encounter at casinos or online.
Low Volatility Slot Profile
- RTP: 95%
- Hit Frequency: 45%
- Payout Range: 30X – 80X bets
- Standard Deviation: 10X bets
You’ll collect many small wins from frequent payouts with minor fluctuation between them. Loss risk is low but jackpots are capped on the low end.
Medium Volatility Slot Profile
- RTP: 96%
- Hit Frequency: 25%
- Payout Range: 0X – 400X bets
- Standard Deviation: 100X bets
Decent RTP gives solid potential returns but swung variance means you’ll endure dry spells without wins and ride hot streaks with bursts of big payouts. Wins vary more widely above and below the average.
High Volatility Slot Profile
- RTP: 97%
- Hit Frequency: 5%
- Payout Range: 0X – 2500X bets
- Standard Deviation: 250X bets
Generous RTP gives a big long-run upside. However, low hit rate and wildly swinging payouts mean you may play long fruitless sessions before one monster jackpot pays a year’s worth of wins. Peak risk and reward!
As demonstrated above, even slots with similar RTP percentages exhibit markedly different volatility based on hit frequencies and standard deviation/variance. Now that you understand these key examples, volatility metrics for any slot should be clearer. Next we’ll cover best practices for applying this knowledge.
Tips for Evaluating Slot Volatility
Here are some tips for gauging and applying slot volatility as you browse casino floors and online lobbies:
- Check RTP first if possible—this largely drives volatility already as explained
- Estimate hit frequency by spinning casually and tracking wins
- Ballpark max payout caps through game rules and advertised jackpots
- Use free play modes to better estimate actual mathematical models
- Select low volatility for casual play, max excitement & bankroll conservation
- Choose higher volatility when you have sufficient bankroll and want to chase big jackpots
With experience and number crunching, estimating approximate volatility ranges becomes second nature. Some players even track precise payout data using techniques like consistent bet sizing across slots. But casual familiarity with general variance profiles is sufficient for most.
You now have all the knowledge necessary to evaluate slot volatility metrics and their impact on payouts and gameplay. Leverage these easy tips to select enjoyable slots with volatility tuned to your tastes and bankroll limits. Over time you will become adept at eyeballing if a game seems low, medium or high variance at a glance. Understanding volatility equals understanding slot machines themselves and their probability curves. This drives smarter slot selection for better payouts more often.