Despite its simple gameplay, the game Aviator has sparked a wave of discussion in various circles, from mathematicians to bloggers. It seems simple: wait for the multiplier to increase and collect your winnings while the plane is still in sight. The only catch is predicting the moment of the “crash”. Is it possible to calculate the fall that will void the bet, or is this an illusion of control created by the numbers on the screen?
Interest in the game is fuelled by the high potential winnings, which can reach ×500 of the initial bet. https://aviators-games.net/ users try to understand the principles of the game to figure out what is behind the chaotic movement of the multipliers. The deeper they delve into the calculations, the more they realise that behind the minimalist picture lies the mathematics of probability.
How the Crash Formula Works
The crash game from Spribe is based on Provably Fair technology, an algorithm that generates the outcome of each round before the player places a bet. This means that the result does not depend on the user’s actions or external factors such as the number of participants and the size of the bets.
The mechanism is based on the SHA-256 cryptographic hash, the same technology used in blockchain. The system combines three initial values (server seed, client seed and nonce) and forms a unique combination from them. The resulting hash is converted into a number that determines the maximum odds in the round.
The main stages of generating the result are as follows:
- Step 1. The server generates a seed – a random value that is known to the user after the round, but not before it starts.
- Step 2. The client (i.e. the player’s device) adds its own seed, which is created when the session starts.
- Step 3. The algorithm combines both values and the nonce – the round’s serial number – to prevent combinations from repeating.
- Step 4. The resulting hash is converted into a fractional number, from which the final multiplier is derived – the moment when the plane leaves the playing field.
Provably Fair ensures that the result is unpredictable. It cannot be changed, but any user can verify the fairness of the draw by comparing the public hashes with the calculated value. When the player is only watching the bet multiplier increase, the algorithm already knows the final value at which the draw will stop.
The Myth of Predictable Patterns
Even if a game is based on chance, the human brain tries to find patterns in it. This is a natural mechanism — the search for predictability where there is none. The effect is clearly evident in the Aviator game, because many users try to analyse the results of previous rounds to notice cyclicality in the process.
From a technical point of view, this is impossible. Each round is created with a new combination of hash values, and none of the parameters from the previous flight are carried over to the next. The algorithm has no memory, and it is this feature that forms the basis of all pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs). Each launch is a new independent experiment for the system.
Nevertheless, users fall into the trap of the gambler’s fallacy, thinking that past results influence future ones. If a plane has flown earlier than ×2.0 ten times in a row, it seems that the next flight will definitely be long. In practice, the probability of an early “crash” remains the same, since the sequence is not cumulative.
To verify this, just look at the basic statistics:
- The probability of a crash before ×2.0 is about 50%;
- The probability of a crash before ×5.0 is about 80%;
- The probability of a crash above ×50 is less than 0.2%.
The data does not change depending on the history of previous games. Even if the odds did not exceed ×3 twenty times in a row, the system does not “compensate” for the result. In reality, the probability of a new high multiplier remains the same because each event is statistically independent.
Betting Algorithms and Risk Control
Most strategies in Aviator have one goal: to organise randomness. They do not affect the outcome of the round, but they help to manage the probability of bankruptcy, i.e. the moment when a series of unsuccessful bets eats away at your balance.
The most famous models come from classic betting systems:
- Martingale. After each loss, the bet is doubled so that one successful round covers all losses. In practice, this strategy requires a huge amount of funds and quickly reaches the casino’s limits. After 10 consecutive losses, the bet increases 1024 times, which makes the scheme mathematically unstable.
- Anti-Martingale. The opposite approach, with the bet only increasing after a win. It reduces the risk of bankruptcy but decreases potential profits in the long run, as rare wins with high multipliers do not compensate for frequent losses.
- Fixed bet. This is a balanced option where the bet size does not change. With this approach, it is easier to control volatility and evaluate the mathematical expectation over time.
- Auto-cashout at a certain odds. A technical feature that allows you to set the withdrawal point, for example, ×1.50 or ×2.00. It eliminates emotional play and careless losses, bringing the result closer to the statistical norm.
Each strategy can be viewed as a tool for controlling dispersion. They do not increase the chances of winning, but they stabilise the balance curve and prevent catastrophic drawdowns.
The mathematical expectation in the Aviator game always remains slightly below one due to the minimum built-in margin. This means that any strategy will only work within the limits of risk management, not increasing profitability. The difference between a successful and unsuccessful player is not in the formula for winning, but in the ability to stop in time.